The Renminbi Has Rebounded Sharply Against The US Dollar.

This week, the RMB exchange rate rebounded sharply against the US dollar. In the early days of the week, it was weakened by the weakening trend of the US dollar during the labor holidays. The RMB rebounded sharply for two consecutive days, with a cumulative rebound of more than 330 points. P

The main reason for the sharp rebound is that the US employment market data released last Friday are substantially better than expected, with 288 thousand jobs in non farm jobs and 6.3% unemployment rate, both of which have gone far beyond expectations.

However, the US dollar index did not show a sharp rebound. The rebound accelerated and then fell rapidly. The euro and Sterling went up sharply, hitting a new high in the year.

This provided good support for the sharp rise in the renminbi on Monday.

Two, since the fall of the current round of RMB, the cumulative decline has reached 3.5%, the largest decline since the reform. The market has accumulated more foreign exchange positions. With the weakening of overnight dollar, the concentration of foreign exchange positions has been released, boosting the rebound trend of RMB.

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In April, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry was 48.1, which was lower than that of 50 in fourth consecutive months. In April, the volume of trade import and export increased slightly, but the growth rate did not exceed 1%. In April, trade import and export still declined compared with the same period last year.

The stabilization of economic indicators in the month of April did not conceal the weakness of the overall economy. Therefore, the renminbi has not yet had a strong appreciation base, and the short-term trend is still dominated by weak shocks.

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< p > back to the topic of the large fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, we can see that since the central bank expanded the RMB's volatility to unilateral 2% in March 16th, the daytime fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has expanded significantly, and the visibility of the exchange rate risk of individuals and enterprises is increasing.

This will encourage individuals and enterprises to re-examine the expectation of the future trend of the RMB exchange rate. It is certain that the short-term expectation will be difficult to reach a consensus, but will lead to an increase in the daytime fluctuation of the renminbi.

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< p > in the long term, this week, the US dollar has narrowed to less than a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > /a. With the easing of the tension of domestic RMB funds, there is still room for further decline in the next week's premium.

Among them, the US dollar premium for offshore forward was even larger. As of Friday, the US dollar rise in domestic and foreign currencies has been basically flat, and the US dollar has risen by about 600 points a year.

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< p > > this week, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Euro > /a > RMB has changed greatly. In the early days of the week, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen, made no hurry to quickly reduce the balance sheet, which led to the continuation of the recent downturn in the US dollar, and the euro zone manufacturing industry PMI finally rose steadily, helping the euro to remain stable in the two and a half years.

But the ECB meeting on Thursday upset the trend of the euro's stability.

The European Central Bank has kept the current interest rate unchanged, but Delagi, the European central bank governor, said at a news conference after the meeting that if the inflation performance of a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > Euro < /a > continued to be depressed, the central bank was ready to take action next month to stimulate the euro zone economy.

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In the early days of the speech, the euro rose to a new high of two and a half above 8.71, but with the remark on it, the euro fell sharply, and the highest closing point fell 1000 points as of that day.

The sharp fall in the euro has disrupted the upward trend in the previous period, and there is still room for a downward trend in the short term. Next Thursday, the new euro area inflation data will be released, which is expected to have a more significant impact on the future trend of the euro.

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This week, the yen basically maintained a slight concussion against P.

Although geopolitical tensions in Ukraine prompted hedge funds to boost the yen against the US dollar, the recent rebound in the renminbi offset the rise in the yen against the yuan, making the currency a narrow concussion around 0.0612.

As the situation in Ukraine is expected to ease gradually with the withdrawal of Russian troops and the general election in Ukraine, the pressure of the fall of the yen will increase.

From a graphical perspective, the Japanese yen continues to be suppressed by the 0.0614 level above, and the resistance effect is short term.

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