Stock Market Outlook: The Trend Does Not Depend On The Game Of Market Capital Objects.

It is sad for China's small and medium-sized investors to think about it. They must bear the hardship of seven losses and two gains and losses for a long time, bear the fraudulent practices of all kinds of trading means of the elite of the venture capital institutions, and bear the responsibility of the short bear market.

At the end of July 2014, A shares successfully went out of the bottom of the 2000 bear markets and opened a round of momentum like the big crazy bull market. In June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the 5178 round of the bull market at the end of the current bull market. The cumulative increase in the 11 month market reached more than 150%, but it was only 11 months.

We still have not broken through the 3478 high points after the subprime mortgage crisis, let alone the historical high of 6124.

Under the "retail market" pattern, the bull market rushing headlong into the herd, the fast bull, the mad cow, the one step in place, the bear market is dispersed, the bear journey is endless, and the declining trend is endless.

The law of ox bear alternates mostly in the non healthy pattern of "short cattle and slow bear".

The US stock market is different. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the three major indexes of the United States opened the slow cow mode. Although the stock index rose by more than 1% every day, but thanks to the rise or fall of the stock index and the small wave and slow wave of the stock index, the Daniel market has been on the road for 7 years and has not yet finished. After 8 days of trading in the UK, it has reached a record high.

The DJIA has been refreshing its record in the near future after its record high of 18500 points this month.

In the past 7 months, 88 months in total, the Dow Jones index has risen 180%. In response to the enviable trend of the Manniu in the United States, the anxious Chinese fast bear trend has been observed. Professor Dong Dengxin believes that the bull market is coming, rushing headlong into mass action, and all the people buying stocks.

Mad cow, fast bull and short bull seem to cater to the speculative mentality of people making quick money and frying the bull market in the morning.

Of course, this is a joke. Although Professor Dong has made fun of himself, he has portrayed the typical characteristics of China's stock market as follows: herd mentality and herd mentality. However, it is unfair to attribute the short bear length to small investors in China's stock market, which means that in order to healthy bull market, we should try to expel small and medium investors and develop institutional investors.

Professor Tung said: "

The main feature of the "institutional market" is that the bilateral bilateral game players always take the institutional investors as the main body, and the bilateral equivalence game under the operation of large funds, large combinations and specialized teams. The market valuation is more rational and more balanced, which is conducive to smoothing the market fluctuation and conducive to the steady operation of the market.

Its bear and bear alternation often appears as a healthy pattern of "slow cow and short bear".

Correspondingly, the "retail market" is dominated by individual investors. Most of the players are mostly retail investors. Sometimes they may be interpreted as institutional investors. Basically, there will be no equilibrium game between institutions and institutions.

　　市场走势不是取决于市场资金对象的博弈，而在于博弈方式的不同，在中国机构也好市场大佬也好，都缺乏以中长期持股理念，而追求一种短期利润最大化，总是挖空心思利用资金优势操纵市场，掠夺其他投资者的财富尤其是缺少常识的中小投资者的财富，根本就不是投资，而是交易欺诈，市场常常演绎机构与游资大佬的资金对决，要么机构撤退游资大佬进场，要么是游资大佬撤退机构进场，或者干脆就是大资金与中小投资者的博弈，次新股博弈更为强烈一点，每一个次新股大幅走强背后都闪现着各种大资金的身影，据凤凰网，6月20日文章，“经过短暂回调后的次新股板块再掀狂潮，上周三、周五两个交易日，次新股指数涨幅均超过5%，不少次新板块个股纷纷上演涨停潮，公开数据显示，机构频频现身次新股前五大买卖席位”。

The valuation of sub shares is much higher than that of the same industry.

Is this value investing? Is it a long-term investment? No, it's just a short-term behavior. Everyone knows what to do. If we can get one, we will be able to succeed.

Without big capital participation, can we only rely on small and medium investors to get new shares?

　　中国有一句话焦作种瓜得瓜种豆得豆，言外之意就是有什么样的投资文化和投资理念，有什么样的法律环境，就会有什么样的投资风格，在中国，由于执法环境较为宽松，市场参与者对法律缺乏敬畏之心，而通过市场操纵相比价值投资又更容易获得超额利润，而承担法律责任有较为有限，在股灾发生以前基本不用承担法律责任，从监管来说有的时候为了指数的繁荣往往放弃对市场交易的监管，因此导致市场操纵极为盛行，不管是主流机构、知名私募和游资大佬都热衷于市场操纵牟取暴利，涨停板敢死队在中国股市名声赫赫，其背后含义就是市场操纵手段凶悍，其总舵主徐翔有诸多成名经典案例，比如重庆啤酒和獐子岛等等，就是公募基金也难逃其咎，联合持股问题和抱团取暖问题一直被市场广泛质疑，虽然法律上鉴定其市场操纵存有异议，但是成就了15年诸多

Super Bull Stock, for example, all through education, Lang Ma information and anshuo information, Xinhua publicly questioned the information of New Zealand's new shares, Wang's 2 million profit, how to support the 400 share price, Xinhua pointed out that as of the first quarter of this year, the top ten shareholders were occupied by the fund; while in the list of 400 yuan high, the agency's sweeping action continued.

The high valuations are always in the rush to catch up. It is because the public funds are heating up and pulling up the stock price to do the high fund net value rather than considering the investment value. Therefore, the stock price always keeps rising and keeps accumulating too many short-term risks.

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When it comes to market manipulation, we have to say that the continuous trading under the manipulation of the trading limit is a very common way of manipulating the Chinese market. With the strong capital advantage, the main funds are going to pull up to the next day after the stock price rises, and then another venture capital intervention is pulled to the limit again, so that the stock price is often doubled in the short term, but the burst of the fundamentals is also a sign that once the big funds are taken away, the share price will plummet quickly and fall to a certain extent. The cost of holding shares will be similar, and the cost will be similar to that of the long bear, until the small and medium-sized retail investors are cutting the meat one after another, and the big money can enter the market again to absorb the chips.

This is the root cause of the short bear.

Unwilling to obtain a more stable profit through long-term shareholding, on the one hand, the market manipulation is easier to get huge profits, but also because of the lack of a scientific long-term plan, which is mainly reflected in the absence of a scientific long-term plan for IPO. Under the guise of supporting the real economy, it often appears out of control, and there is a big leap forward expansion. The three years of the pseudo market reform are the same. In the first half of 15 years, the new stock market has suddenly accelerated. Whether it is large or small investors can not grasp the impact of the expansion of the post market on the index, so more people always want to take advantage of the positive stock market policy, and regulate it for the time being. The reason for big money

Therefore, the normalization of IPO and the scientization of marketization are crucial to the smooth operation of the market.

Therefore, as long as China's law enforcement environment is still loose and market manipulation is still prevalent, the sharp rise and fall of stock prices will be difficult to eradicate from the Chinese stock market, because market manipulation is fast and fast, and it is impossible to get out of the slow rising market, because they are pursuing a short-term price difference. They will use capital advantages to guide the share price to run according to their wishes and operate according to the pattern that can attract other investors to follow suit. Once they succeed, they will immediately withdraw and complete a perfect market investment behavior, while the market manipulation of the slow moving cattle is too costly to run, and it is easy to fail.

Value regression is a long and painful process based on the fact that the cost of shareholding converging is not likely to be completed in the short term.

From this point of view, Professor Dong Dengxin's proposal to increase the marketization and rule of law reform is worth affirming, but as for the relationship between registration system reform and the slow cow, I hold a reservation.

Under such circumstances, unilateral proposals to strengthen institutional strength may not be feasible, because the main problem in China's stock market is institutions.

Professor Tung suggested that the expansion of public funds should be expanded by ten times as a stock market development strategy in the next ten years. But it is not necessarily a weapon to expand the public fund in the next ten years. But it is not necessarily a good weapon to change the stock market in China. Then professor Dong Dengxin suggests expanding the coverage of enterprise annuity and occupational annuity, increasing the employee participation rate and the contribution rate. For second, Professor Tung may wish to increase the pension and enterprise annuity market strength, so as to realize the US 401K plan, because China has a saying that the US stock market has benefited from the pformation of the market investment style and entered the era of value investing, and out of the wave after another. Gradually scattered, short-term, assimilation, everyone is keen on the same concept of the same theme, constantly high pursuit.

Although there has been a consensus on increasing the intensity of pension market entry, it is also agreed that the pension market is not a rescue of China's stock market. Besides, the Pension Structure in China is different from that in the United States. China's pension is actually the basic pension of the US government. There are different 401K plans in the US. If the enterprise annuity is used as 401K, the scale is very small, even if the market entry has little impact on the market.

It is true that small and medium investors in China are lack of good investment rationality and investment ideas, like to chase hot topics in the market, and cause the market to fluctuate easily, which makes the market easy to fluctuate. However, the responsibility of the Chinese stock market to rise and fall and bear short bears is always blamed on the fact that small and medium investors are not necessarily fair. Because there is no big capital in some stocks to use capital advantage and use various trading means to deliberately guide certain trend, small investors will not follow suit. In fact, those who follow suit will always lose more and earn less, because the leaders must be the biggest winners, and they have harvested most of the spread.

At the most, it is just an accomplice of the bull market and the bull bear. The real culprit is still big capital like big money.

The market manipulation of private equity gangs and public offering funds is unscrupulous.

Admittedly, there are many small investors in China's stock market and lack of investment philosophy, which is one of the main forces in the market to catch up and down. However, the small and medium investors should be blamed for the sharp rise and fall of the bull bear in the Chinese stock market. As a member of the small and medium-sized investors, the author does not recognize it. It is also a big objection. The small and medium investors will be the biggest ones in the market, but the initiator and the leader are the big investors in the market, including the private equity giants, the hot money chiefs or even the public funds.

Therefore, the simple development of institutional strength will not change the status quo of the short bear in China, but it is essential to intensify the crackdown on market manipulation and the scientification of IPO. As long as large funds do not dare to manipulate the market arbitrarily, small and medium-sized investors have no chance to follow suit, and the market has a clear expectation of the rhythm of new shares, and the share price will not rise sharply.

{page_break}

It is sad for China's small and medium-sized investors to think about it. They must bear the hardship of seven losses and two gains and losses for a long time, bear the fraudulent practices of all kinds of trading means of the elite of the venture capital institutions, and bear the responsibility of the short bear market.

At the end of July 2014, A shares successfully went out of the bottom of the 2000 bear markets and opened a round of momentum like the big crazy bull market. In June 12, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the 5178 round of the bull market at the end of the current bull market. The cumulative increase in the 11 month market reached more than 150%, but it was only 11 months.

We still have not broken through the 3478 high points after the subprime mortgage crisis, let alone the historical high of 6124.

Under the "retail market" pattern, the bull market rushing headlong into the herd, the fast bull, the mad cow, the one step in place, the bear market is dispersed, the bear journey is endless, and the declining trend is endless.

The law of ox bear alternates mostly in the non healthy pattern of "short cattle and slow bear".

The US stock market is different. After the subprime mortgage crisis, the three major indexes of the United States opened the slow cow mode. Although the stock index rose by more than 1% every day, but thanks to the rise or fall of the stock index and the small wave and slow wave of the stock index, the Daniel market has been on the road for 7 years and has not yet finished. After 8 days of trading in the UK, it has reached a record high.

The DJIA has been refreshing its record in the near future after its record high of 18500 points this month.

In the past 7 months, 88 months in total, the Dow Jones index has risen 180%. In response to the enviable trend of the Manniu in the United States, the anxious Chinese fast bear trend has been observed. Professor Dong Dengxin believes that the bull market is coming, rushing headlong into mass action, and all the people buying stocks.

Mad cow, fast bull and short bull seem to cater to the speculative mentality of people making quick money and frying the bull market in the morning.

Of course, this is a joke. Although Professor Dong has made fun of himself, he has portrayed the typical characteristics of China's stock market as follows: herd mentality and herd mentality. However, it is unfair to attribute the short bear length to small investors in China's stock market, which means that in order to healthy bull market, we should try to expel small and medium investors and develop institutional investors.

Professor Tung said: "

The main feature of the "institutional market" is that the bilateral bilateral game players always take the institutional investors as the main body, and the bilateral equivalence game under the operation of large funds, large combinations and specialized teams. The market valuation is more rational and more balanced, which is conducive to smoothing the market fluctuation and conducive to the steady operation of the market.

Its bear and bear alternation often appears as a healthy pattern of "slow cow and short bear".

Correspondingly, the "retail market" is dominated by individual investors. Most of the players are mostly retail investors. Sometimes they may be interpreted as institutional investors. Basically, there will be no equilibrium game between institutions and institutions.

　　市场走势不是取决于市场资金对象的博弈，而在于博弈方式的不同，在中国机构也好市场大佬也好，都缺乏以中长期持股理念，而追求一种短期利润最大化，总是挖空心思利用资金优势操纵市场，掠夺其他投资者的财富尤其是缺少常识的中小投资者的财富，根本就不是投资，而是交易欺诈，市场常常演绎机构与游资大佬的资金对决，要么机构撤退游资大佬进场，要么是游资大佬撤退机构进场，或者干脆就是大资金与中小投资者的博弈，次新股博弈更为强烈一点，每一个次新股大幅走强背后都闪现着各种大资金的身影，据凤凰网，6月20日文章，“经过短暂回调后的次新股板块再掀狂潮，上周三、周五两个交易日，次新股指数涨幅均超过5%，不少次新板块个股纷纷上演涨停潮，公开数据显示，机构频频现身次新股前五大买卖席位”。

The valuation of sub shares is much higher than that of the same industry.

Is this value investing? Is it a long-term investment? No, it's just a short-term behavior. Everyone knows what to do. If we can get one, we will be able to succeed.

Without big capital participation, can we only rely on small and medium investors to get new shares?

　　中国有一句话焦作种瓜得瓜种豆得豆，言外之意就是有什么样的投资文化和投资理念，有什么样的法律环境，就会有什么样的投资风格，在中国，由于执法环境较为宽松，市场参与者对法律缺乏敬畏之心，而通过市场操纵相比价值投资又更容易获得超额利润，而承担法律责任有较为有限，在股灾发生以前基本不用承担法律责任，从监管来说有的时候为了指数的繁荣往往放弃对市场交易的监管，因此导致市场操纵极为盛行，不管是主流机构、知名私募和游资大佬都热衷于市场操纵牟取暴利，涨停板敢死队在中国股市名声赫赫，其背后含义就是市场操纵手段凶悍，其总舵主徐翔有诸多成名经典案例，比如重庆啤酒和獐子岛等等，就是公募基金也难逃其咎，联合

And the problem of Baotuan heating has been widely questioned by the market. Although there are some objections to the legal manipulation of its market manipulation, many achievements have been made in the past 15 years, such as the education of Lang Ma and the information of Andrew. The Xinhua network openly questioned the safety of the new stock market, and Wang's 2 million profit was 400. As of the first quarter of this year, the top ten tradable shareholders were all occupied by the fund; while in the list of 400 yuan high, the agency's sweeping action continued.

The high valuations are always in the rush to catch up. It is because the public funds are heating up and pulling up the stock price to do the high fund net value rather than considering the investment value. Therefore, the stock price always keeps rising and keeps accumulating too many short-term risks.

{page_break}

When it comes to market manipulation, we have to say that the continuous trading under the manipulation of the trading limit is a very common way of manipulating the Chinese market. With the strong capital advantage, the main funds are going to pull up to the next day after the stock price rises, and then another venture capital intervention is pulled to the limit again, so that the stock price is often doubled in the short term, but the burst of the fundamentals is also a sign that once the big funds are taken away, the share price will plummet quickly and fall to a certain extent. The cost of holding shares will be similar, and the cost will be similar to that of the long bear, until the small and medium-sized retail investors are cutting the meat one after another, and the big money can enter the market again to absorb the chips.

This is the root cause of the short bear.

The reason why large funds do not want to get more stable profits through long-term shareholding is that market manipulation is easier to get huge profits, but also because market positioning is not clear. It is mainly reflected in the lack of a scientific long-term plan for IPO. Under the guise of supporting the real economy, it often appears out of control, and there is a big leap forward expansion. The three years of the pseudo market reform are the same. In the first half of 15 years, too, the new shares have suddenly accelerated.

When the bull market is coming, we can get a lot of money and get rid of it, so the bull market always seems to be coming and rushing.

Therefore, the normalization of IPO and the scientization of marketization are crucial to the smooth operation of the market.

Therefore, as long as China's law enforcement environment is still loose and market manipulation is still prevalent, it is difficult for stock prices to rise and fall.

Eradication, because the market manipulation is fast and fast, can not get out of the slow rising market, because they are pursuing a short-term price difference, the use of capital advantage to guide the share price according to their wishes to run, in accordance with the mode that can attract other investors to follow suit, once they succeed, they will immediately evacuate, complete a perfect market investment behavior, and the market manipulation operation is too high, and it is easy to fail. Delong is the best witness, so there is no possibility of long-term bull market trend. There will only be short-term inflation and the next price return.

Value regression is a long and painful process based on the fact that the cost of shareholding converging is not likely to be completed in the short term.

From this point of view, Professor Dong Dengxin's proposal to increase the marketization and rule of law reform is worth affirming, but as for the relationship between registration system reform and the slow cow, I hold a reservation.

这种情况下，单方面建议壮大机构力量的建议未必可行，因为中国股市主要问题是机构投资逐渐散户化，短期化，趋同化，大家热衷于同一个题材同一个概念，不断高位追击，一荣共荣一损共损，董教授建议做大做强公募基金，在未来十年可将公募基金扩容十倍作为一种股市发展策略未必不可，但要说寄望于机构改变中国股市牛短熊长未必就是利器，接着董登新教授建议扩大企业年金和职业年金的覆盖面，提高雇员参加率和缴费率，针对第二点董教授可能是希望加大养老金和企业年金入市力度，从而实现美国401K计划，因为中国有一个说法就是美国股市得益于401K计划完成了市场投资风格的蜕变而进入价值投资时代，走出了一波又一波慢牛。

Although there has been a consensus on increasing the intensity of pension market entry, it is also agreed that the pension market is not a rescue of China's stock market. Besides, the Pension Structure in China is different from that in the United States. China's pension is actually the basic pension of the US government. There are different 401K plans in the US. If the enterprise annuity is used as 401K, the scale is very small, even if the market entry has little impact on the market.

It is true that small and medium investors in China are lack of good investment rationality and investment ideas, like to chase hot topics in the market, and cause the market to fluctuate easily, which makes the market easy to fluctuate. However, the responsibility of the Chinese stock market to rise and fall and bear short bears is always blamed on the fact that small and medium investors are not necessarily fair. Because there is no big capital in some stocks to use capital advantage and use various trading means to deliberately guide certain trend, small investors will not follow suit. In fact, those who follow suit will always lose more and earn less, because the leaders must be the biggest winners, and they have harvested most of the spread.

At the most, it is just an accomplice of the bull market and the bull bear. The real culprit is still big capital like big money.

The market manipulation of private equity gangs and public offering funds is unscrupulous.

Admittedly, there are many small investors in China's stock market and lack of investment philosophy, which is one of the main forces in the market to catch up and down. However, the small and medium investors should be blamed for the sharp rise and fall of the bull bear in the Chinese stock market. As a member of the small and medium-sized investors, the author does not recognize it. It is also a big objection. The small and medium investors will be the biggest ones in the market, but the initiator and the leader are the big investors in the market, including the private equity giants, the hot money chiefs or even the public funds.

Therefore, the simple development of institutional strength will not change the status quo of the short bear in China, but it is essential to intensify the crackdown on market manipulation and the scientification of IPO. As long as large funds do not dare to manipulate the market arbitrarily, small and medium-sized investors have no chance to follow suit, and the market has a clear expectation of the rhythm of new shares, and the share price will not rise sharply.