4 Is It Still Close? Will The Viscose Staple Meet The Fifth Wave Before The Spring Festival?

In the middle of November, although viscose staple fibers were allowed to exchange for a batch of transactions, but in view of the fact that after December, the price of viscose staple fiber was still hard to rise and the price stability lasted for only half a month, the price of viscose staple was only kept for half a month. Due to stable time, the current slow down is also in the fourth wave of the year, and in December 20th, the viscose staple market is likely to decline again, but how much volume can be exchanged for the wave price. If the volume is not up to expectations, will the fifth wave fall before the Spring Festival again?

Figure 1

Early in the middle of November, when the spinning enterprises concentrated on viscose staple fiber, the volume of caution was also evident in December. At the beginning of December, the middle end enterprises of viscose staple fibers began to slide, and the high end still chose to stabilize the order because of the execution of orders. But this week, the price of the viscose staple fiber market has started to increase significantly, which means that the industry delivery tray has begun to become more active. Yarn enterprises have reached a consensus on falling price expectations, but there seems to be many differences in the volume of purchases. There are basically 2 points of view in the market at present. 1, the price of the viscose staple fiber is in the end, and the yarn enterprises are waiting for the purchase of 2 months' volume. 2, it is time to purchase the viscose staple fiber volume for 1 months later, and wait for the new price of viscose staple fiber in January to buy another 1 months. These 2 points also mean that most people in the stadium are cautious about the viscose staple market after the Spring Festival and try not to cross the line.

As a spinning enterprise, most of the above projections are based on subjective feelings and market experience. With regard to data support, after entering December, even if the total capacity of 205 thousand tons of Jiangxi and Funing is pushed to the end of 12, and the current production capacity will not be increased temporarily, the overall output of the industry will continue to increase, and in January 2020, the monthly output of viscose staple fiber may even increase to 360 thousand tons.

Figure 2

Initial inventory, since entering the June, viscose staple fiber industry inventory has begun to show a phased growth, although the process is relatively slow, but until now, the mainland viscose staple fiber factory and external storage stock has reached 160 thousand tons or more (close to 170 thousand tons), if the industry inventory does not continue to grow before February 9, 2020, the viscose staple fiber enterprises will need to sell the production output during December 13th -2 months before the Spring Festival, and the production of viscose staple fiber industry in this period is about 670 thousand tons. Even if the amount of viscose staple fiber mill is reduced, the sales volume before February 9th will also be close to 600 thousand tons. If the viscose staple fiber in February bottom is expected to grow at 10 days in the February, it is also expected that the pre-sale of the viscose staple fiber will be 500 thousand tons. And for viscose staple industry.

Figure 3

If we reach 500 thousand tons of sales before the Spring Festival, we will also need traders to intervene in other industries. Viscose staple fiber sales target before the completion of sales, spinning enterprises in February to purchase viscose staple fiber, according to their own 5-10 days of the Spring Festival holiday shutdown, and one week ahead of the purchase of viscose staple rhythm to calculate, just in late February 2020 to re take the goods. But the question is how can the sales of 670 thousand tons be completed before the festival, or will it continue to need the January re sale price in the late December 2019?